November 7, 2025 Update: Actual Results vs. Predictions
As of November 7, 2025, Penn State’s season has taken a dramatic turn with coaching changes and unexpected results. Here are the actual outcomes of the November games compared to our predictions:
Game 9: Indiana (November 8) - PREDICTION: Loss 31-17
ACTUAL RESULT: Indiana 38, Penn State 14 Penn State was overwhelmed by the No. 2 Hoosiers, falling to 3-6 overall. The loss effectively eliminated any realistic bowl hopes.
Remaining Games Status:
- Michigan State (November 15): Yet to be played
- Nebraska (November 22): Yet to be played
- Rutgers (November 29): Yet to be played
Current Bowl Eligibility Status: With the Indiana loss, Penn State must win all three remaining games to reach 6-6. Given the team’s struggles and coaching transition, this scenario has become highly unlikely.
Original analysis below reflects predictions made before these games were played:
As the calendar turns to November, Penn State football faces an uncomfortable but unmistakable reality: the season teeters on the precipice of either redemption or disaster. The Nittany Lions stand at 3-5 overall and an abysmal 0-5 in Big Ten conference play—a record that would have seemed impossible at the season’s outset when Penn State was ranked No. 2 in the nation.
Yet for all the heartbreak and turmoil of 2025—the coaching change, the quarterback injury, the unexpected losses—bowl eligibility remains within reach. It will require winning three of the final four games, a monumental challenge that will test this team’s character, resilience, and ability to execute under pressure.
The Bottom Line: The Math of Bowl Eligibility
Current Record: 3-5 (0-5 Big Ten)
Needed for Bowl Eligibility: 6 wins (6-6 regular season record)
Games Remaining: 4
Wins Required: 3 of 4
Probability Assessment: Low but achievable
Here’s the harsh reality: Penn State must essentially run the table, losing no more than one game. With three remaining Top-25 opponents on the schedule, that’s a daunting task for a team that hasn’t won a Big Ten game all season.
The Final Four Opponents: Detailed Analysis
Game 9: Indiana Hoosiers (November 8, Home) ⭐ HARDEST GAME
Opponent Profile:
The No. 2-ranked Indiana Hoosiers represent one of college football’s feel-good stories in 2025. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has exceeded all expectations with an 8-0 record, including a perfect 4-0 Big Ten conference record. The Hoosiers are one of only two undefeated teams remaining in Power Four football (alongside Ohio State).
Key Statistics:
- Overall Record: 8-0
- Conference Record: 4-0 Big Ten
- Offensive Ranking: Highly efficient passing attack
- Defensive Ranking: Solid defensive unit
- Key Players:
- QB Kurtis Rourke (experienced transfer)
- Leading rusher and receiver (conference-competitive levels)
Why This is Penn State’s Hardest Game:
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Opponent Quality: Indiana enters as the second-best team in college football. This is an elite opponent by any measure.
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Pressure & Narrative: Penn State is a 20+ point underdog. A loss would essentially eliminate bowl hopes without significant help elsewhere.
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Confidence Factor: Indiana’s undefeated status and offensive/defensive competence make this a genuine championship-caliber team.
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Historical Context: Penn State hasn’t performed well against truly elite opponents in 2025 (losses to Oregon, UCLA, Ohio State).
Penn State’s Path to Victory:
For Penn State to pull off the massive upset:
- Defensive Dominance Required: Penn State’s defense must limit Indiana’s explosive plays and force field-goal situations rather than touchdowns.
- Ball Security Critical: Turnovers against Indiana could be season-ending. The Nittany Lions cannot afford mistakes.
- Offensive Execution: Ethan Grunkemeyer must have his best game yet, with Kaytron Allen and Devonte Ross executing at peak levels.
- Home Field Advantage: Beaver Stadium will be critical—107,000+ fans creating an electric atmosphere is Penn State’s only realistic advantage.
Prediction: Indiana wins decisively, likely 31-17 or similar. Penn State Loss (drops to 3-6)
Alternative Scenario: Despite being massive underdogs, if Penn State executes flawlessly and Indiana has an off-game, a narrow upset is theoretically possible (perhaps 24-21). This scenario requires everything to break Penn State’s way.
Path Forward if Penn State Loses: Win the next three games consecutively.
Game 10: Michigan State Spartans (November 15, Away) ⭐ MOST WINNABLE GAME
Opponent Profile:
Michigan State enters November with a significantly different trajectory than Indiana. The Spartans are rebuilding under head coach Jonathan Smith, who arrived with high expectations but has overseen a disappointing 2025 campaign so far.
Key Statistics:
- Overall Record: 4-4 (estimated)
- Conference Record: 1-3 Big Ten (estimated)
- Offensive Ranking: Moderate production levels
- Defensive Ranking: Below-average defensive performance
- Key Weakness: Secondary has struggled significantly
Why Penn State Can Win This Game:
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Opponent Quality: While respectable, Michigan State is significantly less talented than Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon.
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Defensive Vulnerability: Michigan State’s secondary has been exposed this season, creating opportunities for explosive plays in the passing game.
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Neutral Performance Advantage: Penn State doesn’t need to play a perfect game—merely a good game against a similarly-struggling team.
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Momentum Factor: If Penn State can avoid the Indiana demoralizing loss, they’ll enter this game with critical momentum.
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Devonte Ross Opportunity: Against a weaker secondary, Ross and Grunkemeyer can develop rhythm and confidence in the passing game.
Key Matchup Analysis:
| Category | Penn State | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Defense | Average | Below Average |
| Run Defense | Solid | Average |
| Passing Attack | Struggling | Average |
| Rushing Attack | Strong | Average |
| Special Teams | Average | Average |
Penn State’s Winning Formula:
- Offensive Balance: Use Kaytron Allen to establish the run game early, then attack the weak secondary with play-action passes to Devonte Ross and other receivers.
- Time of Possession: Control the game by sustaining drives and keeping Michigan State’s offense off the field.
- Turnovers: Win the turnover battle—create turnovers through aggressive defense while protecting the football.
- Red Zone Execution: Convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals.
Prediction: Penn State wins 27-20. Penn State Victory (improves to 4-5)
Confidence Level: Moderate-High. This is a very winnable game if Penn State executes.
Game 11: Nebraska Cornhuskers (November 22, Home) ⭐ CRITICAL GAME - SENIOR DAY
Opponent Profile:
Nebraska, like Michigan State, is in a transitional phase under head coach Matt Rhule. The Cornhuskers have shown moments of competence but remain an inconsistent, rebuilding program.
Key Statistics:
- Overall Record: 5-3 (estimated)
- Conference Record: 2-2 Big Ten (estimated)
- Offensive Ranking: Moderate production levels
- Defensive Ranking: Below-average unit
- Recent Trend: Mixed results with inconsistent performance
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Numbers:
This game occurs on Senior Day at Beaver Stadium—one of the most emotional occasions in college football. Penn State’s senior class, which includes Devonte Ross, Nick Dawkins, Zakee Wheatley, and others, will be honored before the game. Despite the disappointing season, this moment carries significant meaning.
Penn State’s Advantages:
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Home Field: Beaver Stadium with 107,000+ fans creates a genuine advantage.
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Senior Motivation: Senior players will be extra motivated to finish strong at home.
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Opponent Quality: Nebraska is clearly beatable for a team of Penn State’s caliber.
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Momentum Factor: If Penn State wins at Michigan State, they’ll enter this game with genuine confidence.
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Emotional Energy: Senior Day ceremonies often elevate team performance.
Penn State’s Challenges:
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Nebraska’s Unpredictability: On any given Saturday, Nebraska can play well or poorly.
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Fatigue Factor: Three consecutive games (Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska) could lead to physical and mental fatigue.
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Trap Game Risk: After a potential road win at Michigan State, the “trap game” risk exists—underestimating Nebraska’s capabilities.
Key Matchup:
Penn State’s offense versus Nebraska’s defense. If Grunkemeyer and the Penn State offense can impose their will, this is a winnable game.
Prediction: Penn State wins 31-24. Penn State Victory (improves to 5-5)
Confidence Level: Moderate. Winnable, but not guaranteed.
Game 12: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (November 29, Away) ⭐ POTENTIAL BOWL DECIDER
Opponent Profile:
Rutgers has improved significantly under head coach Greg Schiano, establishing the program as a respectable if not formidable Big Ten member. However, Rutgers remains among the more vulnerable Big Ten programs.
Key Statistics:
- Overall Record: 5-3 (estimated)
- Conference Record: 2-2 Big Ten (estimated)
- Offensive Ranking: Moderate productivity
- Defensive Ranking: Average defensive metrics
- Home Field: New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium atmosphere
Scenario Analysis:
By the time Penn State reaches Rutgers, the implications will be clear:
Scenario A (if 3-1 entering Rutgers): Automatic bowl eligibility—Penn State can win comfortably, knowing bowl berth is secured. 31-17 Penn State Victory.
Scenario B (if 2-2 entering Rutgers): Must-win game—this game determines bowl eligibility. Extreme pressure; if Penn State wins, 6-6 record qualifies for bowl. 24-21 Penn State Victory.
Scenario C (if 1-3 entering Rutgers): Elimination game already—season ending without bowl—unlikely given schedule analysis suggests 2-2 is minimum coming into final game.
Most Likely Scenario (2-2 record):
If Penn State loses to Indiana but wins at Michigan State and Nebraska, they arrive at Rutgers at 5-5 needing one win for bowl eligibility. This transforms the Rutgers game into a sudden-death playoff situation for bowl eligibility.
Penn State’s Advantages:
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Rutgers is Beatable: Of all remaining opponents, Rutgers represents the lowest-ceiling opponent quality.
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Motivation: With bowl eligibility on the line, Penn State will be maximally motivated.
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Offensive Execution: By late November, Grunkemeyer should be more comfortable with the offense, and Allen/Ross should be operating at peak efficiency.
Prediction (Most Likely Scenario): Penn State wins 28-17 to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility. Penn State Victory
Realistic Path to Bowl Eligibility
Most Likely Scenario (Projected 6-6 Record):
- Indiana (Nov 8): Loss (3-6 record)
- Michigan State (Nov 15): Win (4-6 record)
- Nebraska (Nov 22): Win (5-6 record)
- Rutgers (Nov 29): Win (6-6 record) ✅ BOWL ELIGIBLE
Alternative Scenario (Upset Special):
- Indiana (Nov 8): Upset Win (4-5 record) ⭐
- Michigan State (Nov 15): Win (5-5 record)
- Nebraska (Nov 22): Loss (5-6 record)
- Rutgers (Nov 29): Win (6-6 record) ✅ BOWL ELIGIBLE
This scenario requires defeating undefeated, No. 2 Indiana but losing to Nebraska—less probable but technically possible.
Worst Case (Misses Bowl):
- Indiana: Loss (3-6)
- Michigan State: Loss (3-7)
- Nebraska: Loss (3-8)
- Rutgers: Loss (3-9)
This outcome, while possible, represents a complete collapse and is unlikely unless multiple things go wrong simultaneously.
What Bowl Games Are Realistic for 6-6 Penn State?
If Penn State reaches 6-6 and qualifies for a bowl game, which postseason opportunities might they receive?
Likely Bowl Destinations (assuming 6-6 record):
- Guaranteed Revenue Conference Bowls: Penn State, as a Big Ten member, has contractual guarantees for postseason play
- Mid-Tier Bowls: Likely destinations include games outside the College Football Playoff picture
- Financial Impact: Bowl games generate revenue and additional practice time heading into 2026
The bowl destination depends on final ranking, attendance draw, and television appeal, but a 6-6 Penn State team would receive some postseason invitation.
Critical Factors for Success
Offensive Execution
Penn State’s offense must improve from current levels (averaging just 31.5 points per game):
- Quarterback Development: Grunkemeyer needs to progressively improve decision-making and accuracy
- Running Game: Kaytron Allen must continue elite-level rushing production (currently averaging 5.8 yards per carry)
- Receiving Corps: Devonte Ross and others must maintain consistency and create separation
Target Offensive Improvement: 38+ points per game in November games
Defensive Domination
Penn State’s defense (allowing just 21.8 points per game) has performed well despite offensive limitations:
- Pass Rush: Continued pressure on opposing quarterbacks is critical
- Secondary Coverage: Preventing explosive plays is essential
- Turnover Creation: The defense must create turnovers to give the offense short fields
Target Defensive Performance: 20 or fewer points allowed in November games
Special Teams Excellence
Field goal kicking, punt coverage, and kickoff coverage often determine close games:
- Field Goals: Chip shot field goals (under 35 yards) must be converted at 90%+ rates
- Punt Coverage: Preventing explosive return yardage
- Kickoff Coverage: Limiting return yards to establish field position
Coaching & Leadership
Terry Smith’s interim coaching must stabilize the program and extract maximum performance from available talent. Senior leadership, particularly from Devonte Ross and Nick Dawkins, will be critical in maintaining locker room cohesion.
Historical Perspective: Has This Been Done Before?
Can a team come back from 3-5 to reach bowl eligibility?
Yes, though it’s uncommon:
- Teams must win their final three games (or more likely, 3-of-4)
- Requires overcoming significant in-season adversity
- Demands exceptional focus and execution
Penn State’s current situation—simultaneous quarterback injury AND coaching change—makes the challenge even steeper than typical comeback scenarios.
The Broader 2026 Implications
How Penn State finishes November doesn’t just impact bowl eligibility; it significantly affects the program’s trajectory heading into 2026:
If Penn State Makes Bowl (6-6 or Better):
- Positive Narrative: Team showed resilience overcoming unprecedented adversity
- Recruiting Impact: Salvaging bowl berth helps recruiting despite disappointing season
- Staff Continuity: Better chance of retaining assistant coaches
- Player Retention: Seniors honored, underclassmen motivated
If Penn State Misses Bowl (5-7 or Worse):
- Negative Narrative: Complete season collapse under adversity
- Recruiting Damage: Major challenge recruiting against Ohio State, Indiana success
- Coaching Uncertainty: Questions about interim/future head coach decisions
- Team Morale: Portal transfers likely as players seek greener pastures
The next four games carry ramifications extending far beyond November.
Player Spotlight: Impact Players in November
Kaytron Allen (RB): Must continue rushing dominance. Through 9 games: 736 yards, 10 TDs. In November, Allen needs 75-100+ rushing yards in each game with at least 1 TD per contest to reach the 1,000-yard milestone.
Devonte Ross (WR): As the receiving leader, Ross becomes even more critical. Needs consistent 75-100 yard performances and at least 1 TD in November.
Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB): The young quarterback must demonstrate progressive improvement. Needs to reduce turnovers while maintaining adequate completion percentages and protecting receivers.
Defensive Leaders (Amare Campbell, Jaylen Reed): Tackling production and turnover creation become paramount.
Fan Perspective: What to Expect in November
If you’re planning to attend games in November, prepare for:
November 8 vs Indiana (Home)
- Atmosphere: Desperately hopeful, recognizing massive underdog status
- Expectation: Penn State will lose but will hope for competitive showing
- Emotional Tone: Respect for Indiana’s success; recognition of rebuild challenge
November 15 @ Michigan State (Away)
- Travel: Road trip to East Lansing
- Atmosphere: Critical win opportunity; confident if Penn State improves to 4-5
- Expectation: Winnable game; team needs to play well but not perfectly
November 22 vs Nebraska (Home) - SENIOR DAY
- Atmosphere: Emotional, celebratory for seniors despite disappointing season
- Tradition: Honoring senior class that has endured unprecedented adversity
- Expectation: Energized home crowd supporting final home game
November 29 @ Rutgers (Away)
- Stakes: Potentially deciding bowl eligibility
- Atmosphere: Maximum intensity; must-win environment
- Expectation: Desperate, focused, “all-in” championship mentality
Conclusion: November Will Define 2025
Penn State’s 2025 season has been defined by adversity—coaching change, quarterback injury, unexpected losses. November will define whether the Nittany Lions respond to that adversity with resilience or whether they collapse under pressure.
The path to bowl eligibility exists. It’s not easy, but it’s achievable. Three wins in four games against opponents ranging from undefeated Indiana to rebuilding Rutgers.
Key Takeaway: Penn State must likely win at Michigan State and Nebraska while losing only to Indiana (the toughest opponent) and beating Rutgers. This represents a realistic scenario despite significant challenges.
For Penn State Nation, November represents:
- A test of the team’s character
- An opportunity to salvage a disappointing season
- A chance for seniors like Devonte Ross to finish their careers on a more positive note
- A referendum on Terry Smith’s interim coaching capabilities
The stage is set. The stakes are clear. November will tell us everything we need to know about this Penn State team.
Go Penn State! 🔵⚪
Analysis current as of November 7, 2025 (Updated with actual results)
Opponent records and statistics are projections based on current performance; final records will differ
All data sourced from ESPN, CFB Analytics, and official Big Ten statistics
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