Penn State (5-6, 2-6 Big Ten) faces a definitive “win-or-go-home” scenario this Saturday as they travel to Piscataway to take on Rutgers (5-6, 2-6 Big Ten). In a season defined by unexpected turmoil and a historic collapse from championship contention, the Nittany Lions find themselves fighting for the bare minimum: a 13th game and bowl eligibility.
The stakes couldn’t be clearer. The winner of Saturday’s clash at SHI Stadium secures a sixth win and a postseason berth. The loser finishes 5-7, their season unceremoniously over before December begins.
The Road Here
For Penn State, the journey to this moment has been tumultuous. After starting the season with national title aspirations and a No. 2 ranking, a mid-season collapse triggered by Drew Allar’s injury and James Franklin’s dismissal sent the program into a tailspin. However, interim head coach Terry Smith has stabilized the ship in recent weeks.
After starting his tenure 0-5, Smith has guided the Nittany Lions to back-to-back victories over Michigan State (28-10) and Nebraska (37-10). A win against Rutgers would cap a three-game winning streak to end the regular season, providing a morale-boosting conclusion to a difficult year.
“We know what’s on the line,” Smith said in his Monday press conference. “Our seniors deserve one more game. We’ve fought too hard these last few weeks to let it end now.”
Scouting Rutgers
Rutgers finds themselves in a similar boat, needing one more win to reach bowl eligibility for the third consecutive season. The Scarlet Knights started strong but have struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last five games.
Their defense remains their calling card, but their offense has sputtered in Big Ten play. Penn State’s defense, led by Dani Dennis-Sutton and Abdul Carter’s replacement talent, will look to force turnovers and give short fields to an offense that is finally finding its rhythm under redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer.
Key Matchups
Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Rutgers Secondary
Grunkemeyer has grown up quickly. In last week’s win over Nebraska, he was efficient and poised, completing 11 of 12 passes. He doesn’t need to be a hero; he just needs to protect the football and distribute it to playmakers like Nicholas Singleton and Devonte Ross.
Penn State Rushing Attack vs. Rutgers Front Seven
With Kaytron Allen recently breaking the all-time school rushing record and Nicholas Singleton finding the end zone twice last week, Penn State’s ground game is peaking at the right time. If the Nittany Lions can control the line of scrimmage and establish the run early, it will be a long afternoon for the Scarlet Knights.
Injury Report
Penn State:
- OUT: QB Drew Allar (ankle), LB Tony Rojas (leg), DE Max Granville.
- QUESTIONABLE: DE Chaz Coleman (undisclosed) is a game-time decision.
Rutgers:
- OUT: DL Doug Blue-Eli, LB Moses Walker.
Prediction
Momentum is a powerful force in college football. Penn State seems to have found an identity over the last two weeks, playing with a renewed energy and physical edge. Rutgers, conversely, is limping to the finish line. While SHI Stadium can be a tricky environment, the talent gap—even with Penn State’s injuries—is significant.
Expect a physical, defensive battle early, with Penn State’s rushing attack eventually wearing down the Rutgers defense in the second half. Terry Smith gets his third win, and the Nittany Lions are going bowling.
Score Prediction: Penn State 27, Rutgers 13