Penn State’s first game after the bye is a brutal test against No. 1 Ohio State, a matchup that will reveal whether the retooled Nittany Lions can hang with the Big Ten’s gold standard.
The Matchup: November 1 at Ohio Stadium
Penn State will travel to Columbus on November 1, 2025, for a critical Big Ten matchup against the top-ranked, undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. Kickoff is set for noon ET, with the game being featured as FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff broadcast of the week. The game will be played at Ohio Stadium, one of college football’s most intimidating venues.
Ohio State’s Dominant Season
The Buckeyes enter the contest with a perfect 8-0 record and are riding one of the most impressive defensive performances in college football. Through six games, Ohio State has allowed just 5.5 points per game, has yet to surrender a red-zone touchdown, and has held every opponent to nine points or fewer. This defensive prowess, combined with an explosive offense led by sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin and elite weapons like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, makes the Buckeyes the clear favorites in this matchup.
Ohio State’s dominance was on full display in their most recent game, when the Buckeyes scored 42 points against Minnesota, showcasing the type of offensive firepower that has made them virtually unstoppable through the early part of the season.
Penn State’s Historic Struggles Against Ohio State
For Penn State, this game represents both a significant challenge and a historic opportunity. The Nittany Lions are currently on an eight-game losing streak against Ohio State, with their last victory over the Buckeyes coming in 2016. More notably, Penn State hasn’t won at Ohio Stadium since 2011, a stretch of 14 years without a victory in Columbus.
With Interim Head Coach Terry Smith now at the helm—having taken over after James Franklin’s dismissal following the Northwestern loss—and with backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer making only his second career start, the odds are heavily stacked against the Nittany Lions in this contest.
Ethan Grunkemeyer’s Developing Role
Ethan Grunkemeyer faces a monumental challenge in his second career start. In his first career start against Iowa on October 18, the redshirt freshman completed 15 of 28 passes for 93 yards and threw two interceptions. While the effort showed promise in some aspects, the overall performance highlighted how much Grunkemeyer still has to learn at the college level—particularly against elite defenses.
Facing Ohio State’s suffocating defense will be an extreme baptism by fire. The Buckeyes have only allowed six field goals or fewer in each of their first eight games, suggesting that Grunkemeyer will have little margin for error in this contest.
Bowl Eligibility Implications
Penn State’s bowl eligibility hopes are directly tied to this game and the remaining schedule. Currently sitting at 3-4, the Nittany Lions need to win at least three of their final five games to become bowl eligible (6-6 record required). The remaining schedule includes:
- Nov. 1: at Ohio State (undefeated, ranked No. 1)
- Nov. 8: vs. Indiana (at home)
- Nov. 15: at Michigan State
- Nov. 22: vs. Nebraska (at home)
- Nov. 29: at Rutgers
Realistically, victories over Indiana, Nebraska, and Rutgers could provide Penn State with a path to bowl eligibility, as these opponents are considered the more beatable teams on the remaining schedule. However, a win at Ohio State would be a massive statement victory that could energize the entire program under Smith’s new leadership.
Analytics and Predictions
The College Football Power Index projects Ohio State to win with a score of approximately 27-22, reflecting a 5.6-point projected margin. The computer model favors the Buckeyes to win in 63.5% of simulations, while Penn State projects to win in 36.5% of remaining scenarios—a significant underdog role for the Nittany Lions.
The Bottom Line
This matchup represents a defining moment for Penn State’s 2025 season. While a victory over Ohio State would be historic and would virtually guarantee bowl eligibility, the more likely scenario involves Penn State fighting to stay competitive in a game where the Buckeyes’ defense is expected to dominate. Regardless of the outcome, the Nittany Lions’ ability to compete under new interim head coach Terry Smith and with a developing quarterback will provide important data points for the coaching search heading forward.