The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Historic Decline
Nick Singleton’s 2025 season represents one of the most dramatic statistical collapses in recent Penn State football memory.
2024 Season:
- Rushing Yards: 1,099
- Yards Per Carry: 6.4
- Rushing Touchdowns: 13
- All-Purpose Yards: 1,805
- Games Played: 13
2025 Season (Through 10 Games):
- Rushing Yards: 274 (VERIFIED)
- Yards Per Carry: 3.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 6
- Games Remaining: 2
The Decline:
- Rushing yards down 75%
- Yards per carry down 43.8% (6.4 → 3.6)
- Touchdown pace cut in half
- Averaging only 27.4 yards per game vs 85 yards in 2024
This isn’t a minor dip. This is a complete statistical reversal for a player who, just one year ago, became part of Penn State’s first 1,000-yard rushing back duo alongside Kaytron Allen.
What Happened? The Investigation
Theory 1: Kaytron Allen’s Emergence
The Data:
- Allen: 917 yards on 163 carries (5.6 yards per carry)
- Career-high 181 yards vs Michigan State
- 11 rushing touchdowns
- Monopolizing offensive touches
The Reality: This is the most visible explanation. Allen has become Penn State’s workhorse, carrying the offense on his back. While Singleton is taking carries (76-92 attempts depending on the source), Allen is getting the premium ones—often in high-leverage situations.
Statistical Support: Allen’s 163 carries through 10 games averages 16.3 per game. Singleton’s 76-92 carries averages 7.6-9.2 per game. The distribution has clearly shifted in Allen’s favor.
“Kaytron is doing special things right now,” interim head coach Terry Smith said after the Michigan State victory. “We have to ride that wave.”
Theory 2: Offensive Line Deterioration
Penn State’s offensive line faced significant changes heading into 2025 and injuries have taken a toll.
The Challenge:
- New starting center and guard positions
- Injuries to key linemen during the season
- Adjustment period to new personnel
- Inconsistent pass protection affecting run blocking efficiency
The Impact: A weakened offensive line impacts run blocking schemes. When the big men up front aren’t executing, even elite backs like Singleton struggle to create space.
Theory 3: Drew Allar Injury and QB Transition
The Timeline:
- October 11: Drew Allar suffers season-ending ankle fracture
- October 12: James Franklin fired
- October 18: Ethan Grunkemeyer makes first start
The Ripple Effect: Losing a three-year starting quarterback mid-season disrupts offensive rhythm. Allar’s presence in the backfield (play-action, read-option possibilities) created space for running backs. Grunkemeyer, a redshirt freshman, hasn’t yet developed that same chemistry.
“When you change quarterbacks, especially under those circumstances, the entire dynamic changes,” offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki noted.
Theory 4: Coaching Transition Impact
October 12 Seismic Shift:
- James Franklin (12 years) dismissed
- Terry Smith (interim) takes over
- Coaching staff adjustments
- Possible tactical philosophy changes
A mid-season coaching change affects play-calling, personnel packages, and offensive identity. Smith has shown different priorities—evident in the Michigan State game featuring aggressive play-calling and focus on Allen in short-yardage situations.
Theory 5: Potential Health Concerns (Undisclosed)
This is the elephant in the room. While no major injury has been officially reported, college athletes sometimes play through minor injuries that don’t appear in official reports.
“Nick’s been fighting through it,” Smith said vaguely when asked about Singleton’s season. The statement is notably non-committal.
Possible Issues:
- Lower body strain or soft tissue injury
- Hamstring tightness (not serious enough to report)
- Cumulative wear from heavy carry load in 2024
- Recent illness or infection affecting conditioning
The Recent Resurgence: Hope on the Horizon
vs Indiana (November 8)
After struggling for weeks, Singleton showed flashes of his 2024 form against the Hoosiers:
Game Stats:
- Carries: 10
- Rushing Yards: 71
- Longest Run: 59 yards (season-long)
- Yards Per Carry: 7.1 (season-high)
- Touchdowns: 2
Key Observation: That 59-yard run was classic Singleton—he broke through the line, evaded defenders, and showed the lateral agility that made him a Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2022.
“That’s the Nick we know,” Smith said. “When he gets opportunities and things break his way, he can still take it to the house.”
Pattern Recognition
Following the Indiana game, play-callers appear to be giving Singleton more opportunities:
- Increased snap count in red zone
- More direct handoff packages
- Play-action designed specifically for his receiving ability
If this trend continues, Singleton could recapture some form in the final two games.
Historical Context: Elite Penn State Running Backs
To understand Singleton’s 2025, it’s worth comparing him to Penn State’s all-time greats:
Saquon Barkley (2015-2017)
2016: 1,841 yards, 27 touchdowns 2017: 1,402 yards, 31 touchdowns Then Terrible Season? Never. Barkley was consistently elite.
Evan Royster (2008-2011)
- 3,932 career rushing yards (Penn State record)
- Averaged 1,000+ yards/season
- Known for consistency and durability
Nick Singleton (2022-2025)
- 2022 (Freshman): Elite
- 2023 (Sophomore): Solid
- 2024 (Junior): Elite (1,099 yards)
- 2025 (Senior): Struggling (274 yards)
The comparison reveals Singleton’s current season as an outlier—an unprecedented decline for a player of his caliber and pedigree.
The Missing Chemistry Factor
One underappreciated element: rhythm and trust with pass-catchers.
In 2024, with Drew Allar distributing the football and receivers understanding Singleton’s route preferences, the offense flowed naturally. Screen passes, wheel routes, and swing routes gave Singleton opportunities in space.
This season:
- New QB learning the system
- Receiver inconsistency
- Different offensive personnel
- Defensive adjustments to Allen’s dominance (Singleton gets less attention)
“You can’t underestimate rhythm,” said one former Penn State assistant coach. “When you have consistent players and they know each other, things flow differently than when you’re introducing new elements.”
The Statistical Comparison Table
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1,099 | 274 | -75% |
| Yards/Carry | 6.4 | 3.6 | -43.8% |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 6 | -53.8% |
| Games Played | 13 | 10 | - |
| Yards/Game | 84.5 | 27.4 | -67.5% |
| Receiving Yards | 706 | ~80 | -88.7% |
| Receptions | 38 | ~5 | -86.8% |
This table quantifies the dramatic underperformance across all offensive categories.
Can Singleton Salvage His Senior Season?
With two games remaining against Nebraska and Rutgers, Singleton faces his last opportunity to add respectability to his senior campaign.
What Needs to Happen
1. More Offensive Touches
- Increase carries from current 7.6-9.2 per game to 12+
- Design plays specifically for his strengths
- Use in space rather than power running
2. Grunkemeyer’s Continued Development
- More play-action opportunities
- Better decision-making in second reads
- Increased confidence = better execution
3. Offensive Line Settling In
- 10 games into the season, chemistry should improve
- Fewer injuries to key personnel
- Veteran leadership solidifying gaps
4. Match-up Exploitation
- Rutgers’ defense allows 125 yards/game on ground
- Nebraska’s run defense ranked 94th nationally
- Opportunities exist to succeed against these opponents
Realistic Goals for Final Two Games
If Singleton receives more opportunities in Nebraska and Rutgers games:
Conservative Target: 80-100 yards combined (8-10 yards per game)
- Would bring season total to ~350-375 yards
- Still well below 2024 pace but respectable
Optimistic Target: 150-200 yards combined
- Strong finish with momentum
- Reestablishes him as dual-threat back
- Provides hope for NFL scouts
What This Says About Penn State’s Season
Singleton’s decline mirrors the team’s overall collapse:
Preseason #2 Ranking → 4-6 Record 1,099-yard Back → 274-yard Back Championship Dreams → Bowl Eligibility Fight
The decline in individual performance reflects program-wide struggles with:
- Key injury (Allar)
- Coaching change (Franklin fired)
- Offensive line instability
- Defensive inconsistency
- Loss of rhythm and rhythm and continuity
The Senior Class Angle
For Singleton, like his fellow seniors, 2025 represents a betrayal of expectations. The class that arrived with championship aspirations now fights for bowl eligibility and personal statistical redemption.
“These seniors came in expecting to compete for titles,” Smith said. “Nobody saw 2025 going like this. Now it’s about how we finish and what kind of memories we create in these final games.”
Conclusion: Questions Remain
Nick Singleton’s 2025 season remains one of college football’s great mysteries. A 1,000-yard back doesn’t simply become a 3.6-yard-per-carry runner overnight without significant contributing factors.
Whether the cause is:
- Kaytron Allen’s emergence
- Offensive line struggles
- Quarterback transition
- Coaching changes
- Undisclosed health issues
- Or some combination of all five
…the reality is clear: This has been an historically difficult season for one of Penn State’s most talented backs.
The final two games against Nebraska and Rutgers offer Singleton one last chance to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke and 2025 wasn’t his true level.
For a Big Ten Freshman of the Year and 1,000-yard back, nothing less than a strong finish would be acceptable.
The clock is ticking on Singleton’s college career.