The catastrophic nature of Penn State’s 2025 season didn’t just devastate fans and shake the program’s foundation—it triggered a recruiting crisis that will reverberate for years.
For a high school student-athlete considering Penn State, the past nine weeks have presented a stark reality: the program they committed to recruit to has imploded in real-time.
James Franklin, who built the program’s recruitment machine, is gone. Drew Allar, the cornerstone quarterback, is injured. The team that was ranked No. 2 in the preseason is now 3-6 and begging for bowl eligibility.
In the cutthroat world of college football recruiting, perception is reality. And Penn State’s perception has been shattered.
The Immediate Crisis: Decommitments and Wavering Commits
Troy Huhn: The Symbolic Loss
The most visible casualty of Penn State’s collapse was the decommitment of four-star quarterback Troy Huhn in October 2025.
Huhn’s Profile:
- 4-star QB from New Jersey
- High academic credentials
- Mobile, with strong arm talent
- Committed to Penn State in 2024
- Multiple Power 4 offers
His Decommitment Statement (Summary): “The uncertainty surrounding Penn State’s program is significant. With Franklin being fired and the coaching situation uncertain, I’m going to explore my other options and make the best decision for my future.”
Why This Matters: Huhn’s decommitment was the canary in the coal mine. If a top-tier QB recruit bails, it signals to other recruits that Penn State is a sinking ship.
Within days of Huhn’s decommitment, other commits began reconsidering.
Other Notable Commit Defections
High School Recruits Who Took Official Visits to Other Schools (October-November 2025):
-
3-Star RB Recruit (from Ohio)
- Committed to Penn State in June 2025
- Took official visit to Ohio State in November
- Status: Likely decommit pending other visit outcomes
-
2-Star to 3-Star ATH (from Pennsylvania)
- Borderline recruit
- Began entertaining other offers after Franklin firing
- Status: Expected to decommit
-
3-Star DL Recruit (from New Jersey)
- Strong physical tools
- Penn State was primary option
- Now exploring Michigan, Rutgers
- Status: Uncertain
Commits Still Under Consideration
The Walking-the-Line Recruits:
Several 3-star commits have publicly stated they’re keeping their options open:
- “I’m still committed to Penn State, but I’m going to look at all my options”
- “This situation is unprecedented. I need to understand who the coach is before I finalize my decision”
- “My family and I are concerned about the stability of the program”
Current 2026 Recruiting Class Status (Estimated):
- Committed: ~18-20 (down from 22+ pre-collapse)
- Expected to decommit: 2-3
- Wavering/Keeping Options Open: 4-5
- Net Result: Program has likely lost 5-7 commits to the collapse
The Coaching Change Problem: Ultimate Recruiting Nightmare
From a recruiting perspective, the timing of Franklin’s firing couldn’t have been worse.
The Recruitment Calendar Matters
Early Signing Period: December 4-6, 2025 (6 weeks away) Late Signing Period: February 2026 (4+ months away) Key Recruiting Months: November, December (decide between schools)
James Franklin was fired on October 12, 2025—right before the most critical recruiting month (November) leading into the early signing period.
The Recruiting Damage Timeline:
- Oct 11: Drew Allar injury; Franklin fired next day
- Oct 12-31: Coaching uncertainty reigns; no clarity on who’s leading program
- Nov 1-4: New interim coach (Terry Smith) announced; perceived as temporary
- Nov 9: Still no permanent coaching hire announced; less than 4 weeks until signing day
Compare to Normal Situation:
- Stable program: Recruits know who’s coaching, what system will be, long-term vision
- Penn State 2025: Recruits don’t know who coach is, what system they’ll play in, long-term direction
Impact on 2026 Class
Realistic 2026 Recruiting Class Projection:
| Metric | Pre-Collapse | Post-Collapse | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commits | 24 | 17-18 | -6 to -7 |
| 4-Star Recruits | 8-10 | 3-4 | -4 to -6 |
| 3-Star Recruits | 12-14 | 10-12 | -2 to -4 |
| 2-Star Recruits | 2-4 | 4-6 | +2 to +4 |
| Class Ranking | Top 15 | Top 25 | -10+ spots |
Why These Losses Matter:
- Loss of 4-star recruits is particularly damaging
- Quality of class declined despite recruiting efforts
- Sets back program’s talent trajectory
The Transfer Portal Exodus: Who’s Leaving?
Coaching changes and program dysfunction trigger transfer portal activity. Penn State could lose current players in the transfer portal.
Players Who Might Enter Transfer Portal
Uncertainty-Driven Exits:
Backup QBs
- If Grunkemeyer loses competition, might transfer
- Drew Allar is graduated (injured out)
- Other QBs might seek playing time elsewhere
Defensive Backs
- Terry Smith is DB coach; others might leave for clearer path to starts
- Defensive rebuilding might make position crowded
Younger Offensive Linemen
- Competition might increase under new regime
- Some younger OL might seek immediate playing time elsewhere
Defensive Line
- Young DL group might get crowded
- Might see 1-2 transfers seeking clearer path
Realistic Transfer Portal Losses (Estimated):
- 3-5 players enter transfer portal seeking opportunity
- Not many losses to major programs; mostly lateral moves
- Net Result: Modest roster loss, manageable
Retention of Key Players: The Positive Side
Players Who Will Stay:
- Kaytron Allen: Too good to leave; NFL draft coming anyway
- Nicholas Singleton: Senior; staying regardless
- Nick Dawkins: 6th-year senior; staying
- Key Offensive Linemen: Staying to maintain position development
- Productive Defensive Starters: Likely staying
Good News: Penn State won’t lose massive numbers of players to the portal. The players who could leave are depth pieces, not stars.
The 2025 Class Hits the Transfer Portal: Penn State’s Recent Recruits Seeking Opportunity
The recruits who committed to and signed with Penn State in 2024-2025 are now experiencing buyer’s remorse.
The 2024 Recruiting Class: Buyers’ Remorse Setting In
Recruits from the 2024 class are only one year into their Penn State careers. The program’s 2025 implosion has them questioning their commitment:
Scenario 1: True Freshmen/Redshirts Considering Portal
- Some young recruits might enter portal after fall camp
- Seeking opportunity/playing time elsewhere
- Particularly if they’re competing for snaps
Scenario 2: Recent Recruits Frustrated by Dysfunction
- Promised development by Franklin coaching staff
- Now dealing with interim coaching; future unclear
- Might consider portal move as “investment correction”
Realistic Portal Entries from Recent Classes:
- 1-2 players might transfer out (mostly non-stars)
- Most will stay and give new coach chance
- Net Result: Minimal damage, but concerning trend
The 2026 Class Problem: Starting From Scratch
The 2026 recruiting class is Penn State’s most-pressing recruiting problem.
Current Situation
Pre-Collapse 2026 Class (Before Oct 12):
- 24 commits
- Top-15 national ranking
- Mix of 4-stars, 3-stars, 2-stars
- Strong foundation for rebuild
Post-Collapse 2026 Class (Current, Nov 2025):
- 17-18 commits (estimated)
- Likely Top-25 ranking (dropped ~10+ spots)
- Fewer 4-stars, more 2-stars
- Uncertainty about direction
The Decommitment Cascade Problem
Once one top recruit decommits (Troy Huhn), it creates a cascade:
Domino Effect:
- Huhn decommits → Major story nationally
- Other recruits see national coverage → Question their choice
- Competitors call recruits → “Penn State is in chaos”
- Recruits begin wavering → Increased decommits
- Class quality declines → Less attractive to remaining recruits
This cascade has clearly begun at Penn State, and it will take aggressive action by the new coaching hire to stop it.
Recruiting Territories Most Affected
Pennsylvania (Home State)
- Problem: In-state recruits can easily switch to other schools
- Risk: Potential loss of 3-4 in-state prospects to rivals
- Competitors: Ohio State, Michigan, Pitt, Temple, others
- Outlook: Must dominate state, but won’t given uncertainty
New Jersey
- Problem: NJ recruit powerhouse; many options
- Risk: Loss of 2-3 NJ recruits to other programs
- Competitors: Rutgers, Ohio State, others
- Outlook: Must establish quick credibility with new coach
Ohio
- Problem: Direct competition with Ohio State
- Risk: Several Ohio recruits likely decommit to OSU
- Competitors: Ohio State (dominant), Michigan
- Outlook: Very difficult to retain Ohio commits
Other Key Areas
- Florida: Minimal Penn State presence; hard to recruit nationally after collapse
- Texas: Limited Penn State presence
- California: Minimal Penn State footprint
The Coaching Hire’s Impact on Recruiting: Make or Break
The new head coach’s identity will determine whether Penn State stops the bleeding or enters a recruiting freefall.
What New Coach Must Do Immediately (December 2025)
Salvage the 2026 Class:
-
Personal Meetings with Wavering Commits
- Face-to-face meetings with every wavering commit
- Message: “I’m here. I’m committed. This is a new era.”
- Goal: Retain 80%+ of remaining commits
-
Announce Recruiting Vision
- Specific recruiting areas (PA, NJ, OH, etc.)
- Position-by-position targets
- Timeline for building elite program
-
Highlight Returning Talent
- Show Allen/Singleton tape
- Emphasize opportunity for new QB/RBs
- Make case that 2026 is turnaround year
-
Discuss Transfer Portal Strategy
- Identify positions needing portal support
- Commit resources to portal recruitment
- Show path to playing time for portal additions
Coaching Hire Implications by Type
If Penn State Hires Prestigious Coach (Urban Meyer-type):
- Recruiting Impact: Major positive; elite coach attracts elite recruits
- Likely Class Outcome: Could still recover to top-20 class
- 2026 Recruiting: Momentum restored; can compete nationally
If Penn State Hires Good but Not Elite Coach:
- Recruiting Impact: Moderate; decent coach stabilizes program
- Likely Class Outcome: Top-25 class; not great, not terrible
- 2026 Recruiting: Depends on early success on field
If Penn State Makes Wrong Hire (Bad Coaching Choice):
- Recruiting Impact: Catastrophic; wrong coach drives wedge deeper
- Likely Class Outcome: Top-30-plus class; significant decline
- 2026 Recruiting: Downward spiral continued
Most Likely Outcome: Penn State hires a “good but not elite” coach (55% probability). This stabilizes recruiting at top-25 level, prevents further exodus, but doesn’t recover 4-star recruits lost.
Strategic Recruiting Approach: Salvage and Build
To rebuild its recruiting, Penn State should pursue a specific strategy:
Short-Term (December 2025-February 2026): Save the Class
Goal: Retain 80% of remaining 2026 commits, add 2-3 transfers
Strategy Points:
- Aggressive retention meetings: Every wavering commit gets personal visit
- Transfer portal focus: Add impact transfers quickly (QB, DL, LB)
- Early victories signal: If Penn State beats one P4 team before signing day, recruiting stabilizes
- Message discipline: Consistent message about program direction
Medium-Term (2026 Season): Early Success Builds Momentum
Goal: Win 8+ games in 2026; position 2027 class for recovery
Strategy Points:
- On-field success drives recruiting: Win 8-4 season creates momentum
- Individual player development: Develop Allen, Singleton, young QBs prominently
- Portal success: Successful transfers prove coach’s ability to evaluate/develop
- Top-tier class: 2027 class becomes “turning point” class
Long-Term (2027-2028): Rebuild Elite Status
Goal: Compete for top-10 classes; position for championship run
Strategy Points:
- Consistent success: 9-3, 10-2 records establish credibility
- National recruiting expansion: Recruit nationally, not just traditional territories
- Transfer portal mastery: Continue adding impact transfers to accelerate timeline
- Championship positioning: Position 2028 for CFP run
Comparison to Other Programs’ Recruiting Crises
How does Penn State’s recruiting situation compare to other programs that have faced similar challenges?
Miami Hurricanes: Cautionary Tale
Situation:
- 2003-2007: Dominant recruiting years (top-10)
- 2008-2010: Program decline, scandal fallout
- 2011+: Recruiting never recovered (often outside top-30)
Lesson for Penn State: Recruiting momentum, once lost, is hard to recover. Miami’s decline in recruiting paralleled football decline. Penn State must prevent similar trajectory.
Key Difference: Penn State has more national resources and fan support than Miami. Recovery is possible, but requires immediate action.
Texas A&M Post-Jimbo Fisher
Situation:
- 2018-2022: Solid recruiting (top-10, top-5 in some years)
- 2023: Jimbo Fisher fired mid-season/off-season
- 2024: Early Elko hire; recovering recruiting
Lesson for Penn State: Quick coaching hire helps recruiting recovery. Texas A&M didn’t solve their problem, but early Elko hire prevented total collapse.
Key Difference: Penn State should announce coach by early December to avoid extended uncertainty.
Colorado’s Transfer Portal Success
Situation:
- 2023: Deion Sanders hired; immediate portal success
- 2024: Dominated transfer portal; went 9-4 with transfers
Lesson for Penn State: Transfer portal can accelerate recovery if executed well. Penn State should focus on proven transfers to stabilize 2026 season.
Specific Recruiting Implications by Position
Quarterback Recruiting: Blocked by Uncertainty
Current Situation:
- Troy Huhn decommitted (primary QB target)
- 2026 QB class depth is strong nationally
- Penn State entering market with disadvantage
2026 QB Recruiting Plan:
- Can’t afford to wait: Must add transfer portal QB immediately
- 2027 Class: Recruit 2-3 QBs once program stabilizes
- Grunkemeyer Development: Make case to recruits that development opportunity exists
Impact: High school QB recruiting takes hit; transfer portal compensates
Running Back Recruiting: Allen Blessing and Curse
Advantage:
- Kaytron Allen’s success (736 yards, 10 TDs) despite team’s struggles proves RB development works
- Nicholas Singleton’s presence shows “carrying the load” is real
- New coach can sell RB opportunity
Strategy:
- Heavily recruit RBs (especially speed back to complement Allen’s power)
- Sell as “develop in Allen’s shadow” or “backup now, starter in 2027”
- Use Allen/Singleton success as recruiting tool
Impact: RB recruiting likely improves under new coach
Offensive Line Recruiting: Nick Dawkins’ Presence Helps
Advantage:
- Nick Dawkins is 6th-year senior, consensus All-American candidate
- OL development reputation intact
- Offensive line play was decent despite team struggles
Strategy:
- Continue aggressive OL recruitment
- Sell as “develop like Dawkins”
- Emphasize OL consistency despite quarterback injuries
Impact: OL recruiting likely remains solid
Defensive Line Recruiting: Crisis Point
Problem:
- Defensive line performed poorly in 2025
- Young players didn’t develop as expected
- Recruitment momentum lost
Strategy:
- Aggressively recruit DL in portal
- New coach must emphasize defensive line development
- Show tape of scheme changes that will help DL
Impact: DL recruiting damaged; must address immediately
Linebacker Recruiting: Rebuilding Mode
Problem:
- LB group is transitioning with graduations
- Unclear who will start in 2026
- Development path is murky
Strategy:
- Recruit highly athletic LBs (scheme flexibility)
- Emphasize opportunity for early playing time
- Show defensive scheme that will be implemented
Impact: LB recruiting moderately affected; recoverable
Defensive Back Recruiting: Secondary Opportunity
Advantage:
- Terry Smith is DB coach; can emphasize development
- DB group has some continuity
- NFL talent path exists (safeties, corners)
Strategy:
- Leverage Smith’s DB coaching reputation
- Recruit top DBs who want development
- Sell as “develop here, go to NFL”
Impact: DB recruiting relatively stable
The 2027 Recruiting Class: Redemption Year
While 2026 class has been damaged, the 2027 recruiting class represents a redemption opportunity.
2027 Class Timeline
2026 Season: Proves new coach competency
- Win 8+ games → Class climbs
- Go bowling → National attention restored
- Develop talent → Recruiting pitch becomes credible
Late 2026: 2027 class recruitment intensifies
- Early commits for 2027 class based on 2026 success
- 2027 class ranking improves based on 2026 performance
2027 Season: Builds on momentum
- 9-3 season establishes elite status
- Elite 2027 class is locked in
- 2028 recruitment begins with serious momentum
Realistic 2027 Class Projection
If Penn State goes 8-4 in 2026:
- 2027 Class Ranking: Top-20 (recovering from 2026 drop)
- Quality: Mix of high-end recruits who buy into new coach
- Momentum: Building toward 2028 championship window
If Penn State goes 10-2 in 2026:
- 2027 Class Ranking: Top-10
- Quality: Elite-level 4-stars and 5-stars
- Momentum: Championship trajectory established
Special Case: Transfers Into Penn State (The Solution)
While Penn State loses high school recruits, the solution might be the transfer portal.
Transfer Portal Strategy: Adding Impact Players
Positions of Need (2026 Off-Season):
- Quarterback (CRITICAL) - Must add portal QB
- Defensive Line - Need proven DL help
- Linebacker - Experienced LB fills void
- Wide Receiver - Depth piece if available
- Safety - Experienced safety to lead secondary
Realistic Transfer Portal Targets
QB Option 1: Power 4 Backup with Potential
- Example: Backup from Ohio State, Alabama, or Texas
- Talent: Proven in good system; can compete immediately
- Realistic? Yes; coaches often don’t use depth
- Impact: Immediate starter solution
QB Option 2: Former Starter from Mid-Tier Program
- Example: Former starter from Oregon State, Washington State, etc.
- Talent: Proven starter; experience in systems
- Realistic? Yes; many programs have talented backups
- Impact: Immediate starter with proven track record
DL Option: Proven Defensive Line Rotational Player
- Various schools have talented backup DL
- Adding experienced DL accelerates development
- Realistic? Yes, multiple options available
LB Option: Transfer from lower-level P4 or G5
- Multiple proven LBs available in portal
- Can contribute immediately while young guys develop
- Realistic? Yes, many options
Success Model: Colorado Example
Colorado under Deion Sanders dominated the 2024 transfer portal:
- Added 24 transfer portal players
- Created 9-4 season
- Drew national attention with transfer success
Penn State shouldn’t expect Colorado-level transfer dominance, but could add 5-8 quality transfers to stabilize roster.
Donor and Financial Implications: NIL and Recruiting Resources
The recruiting crisis has financial implications.
NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) Budget Concerns
Challenge:
- Recruiting competitiveness now depends heavily on NIL
- Penn State can offer NIL, but so can Ohio State, Michigan, others
- Lost credibility makes NIL offers less attractive
Penn State’s Position:
- Has resources to compete on NIL
- But NIL player wants to go to successful program
- 3-6 record makes NIL pitch harder
Solution:
- Use NIL aggressively for key positions (QB, DL, top recruits)
- Budget more carefully; can’t outspend everyone
- Focus NIL on positions of greatest need
Recruiting Staff Implications
Potential Issues:
- Top recruiters might leave for more stable programs
- New coach must inherit Franklin’s recruiting staff or build his own
- Recruiting coordinator changes could disrupt relationships
Solution:
- Retain best recruiters (offer raises, reassurance)
- Build continuity into new coaching staff
- Key relationships maintained despite coaching change
Reality Check: Penn State’s Recruiting Challenges Are Real But Manageable
While Penn State’s recruiting situation is serious, it’s not insurmountable.
Reasons for Optimism
- Returning Talent: Allen/Singleton duo is elite attraction
- Facilities: Among nation’s best
- Academic Reputation: Strong academics remain attractive
- Fan Base: Loyal, passionate fanbase
- Recruiting Territory: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio are talent-rich
- Program History: Penn State remains prestigious program
Reasons for Concern
- Coaching Uncertainty: Still no permanent hire
- QB Instability: No proven starting QB for 2026
- Defense Rebuild: Defense is in transition
- Big Ten Competition: Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana are strong
- Recruiting Damage: Lost 6-7 commits to collapse
Realistic Recruiting Expectations for 2026 and Beyond
2026 Recruiting Class Prediction
- Commits: 18-20 (down from 24 pre-collapse)
- Class Ranking: Top 25
- 4-Star Recruits: 3-4 (down from 8-10)
- Transfer Portal Additions: 5-8 quality transfers
2027 Recruiting Class Projection (if 2026 is successful)
- Commits: 22-24
- Class Ranking: Top 15-20
- 4-Star Recruits: 6-8
- Momentum: Building toward elite status
2028 Recruiting Class Potential (if 2027 is successful)
- Commits: 25+
- Class Ranking: Top 10
- 4-Star Recruits: 10+
- Status: Elite class for championship window
Conclusion: Recruiting Damage is Real, But Recovery is Possible
Penn State’s 2025 collapse has triggered a recruiting crisis that will impact the program for multiple years.
The decommitments (Troy Huhn) and wavering commits represent tangible damage to the 2026 recruiting class. The uncertainty about the coaching situation makes recruiting harder. The program’s damaged reputation makes recruiting nationally difficult.
But Penn State’s situation is not hopeless. With the right coaching hire, strong transfer portal performance, and on-field success in 2026, the program can stabilize recruiting by 2027 and begin competing for elite classes by 2028.
The next 6-12 months are critical. The coaching hire announcement in November/December 2025 will be the first signal. The 2026 season performance will be the second signal. And the 2026 recruiting class performance will be the third signal.
If all three go well, Penn State’s recruiting crisis becomes a temporary setback. If any fail significantly, the program could face years of rebuilding.
The recruiting dominoes have begun to fall. Penn State must move quickly to stop them.
The new coaching era begins now. So does the recruiting redemption.
Article current as of November 10, 2025. Recruiting rankings and projections based on typical class composition, decommitment patterns, and competitive landscape analysis. Actual results will vary based on coaching hire, on-field performance, and transfer portal execution.