As Penn State football staggers toward the finish line of a catastrophic 2025 season, one question dominates every conversation in State College and beyond:
What comes next?
The 2026 season represents more than just another year of football. It’s a chance for Penn State to reset, rebuild, and prove that 2025 was an aberration rather than a reflection of the program’s true ceiling.
For a fanbase that has endured one of the worst collapses in recent college football history, 2026 offers hope. But hope must be built on a foundation of realistic assessment, strategic planning, and the right coaching hire.
Let’s examine what 2026 could—and should—look like for Penn State football.
The Coaching Hire: Foundation for Everything
Any discussion of Penn State’s 2026 outlook must begin with one critical unknown: who will be the next head coach?
The coaching hire will determine everything else about the 2026 season and beyond.
What Penn State Needs in a Head Coach
Based on the failures of 2025 and the lessons of program history, Penn State’s next head coach must possess several key qualities:
1. Proven Power 4 Head Coaching Success
Penn State cannot afford another developmental hire or a coach trying to learn on the job.
Required Credentials:
- Head coaching experience at a Power 4 program
- Multiple winning seasons
- Bowl game experience (preferably multiple)
- Evidence of competing against top-tier opponents
Why This Matters: Franklin won consistently (104-51) but couldn’t break through. The next coach needs the ability to win close games against elite teams, not just dominate mid-tier opponents.
2. Offensive Innovation and Modern Systems
The 2025 season exposed Penn State’s offensive limitations. When Drew Allar went down, the offense became pedestrian.
Required Skills:
- Experience running modern spread-based offenses
- Track record of QB development
- Ability to utilize elite talent (running backs, receivers)
- Creative play-calling and scheme adaptability
Why This Matters: College football has evolved. Plodding, methodical offenses don’t win national championships anymore. The next coach must install an offense that excites fans and recruits, while still leveraging Penn State’s traditional strengths in the running game.
3. Elite-Level Recruiting Credentials
Penn State’s recruiting base is strong (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio), but the program lost some momentum in 2025.
Required Skills:
- National recruiting footprint
- Success building top-10 recruiting classes
- Ability to attract blue-chip talent
- Experience in the transfer portal and NIL era
Why This Matters: Talent acquisition is 80% of success in modern college football. The next coach must be able to recruit better than rival Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana.
4. Championship Pedigree and Winning Mentality
Penn State has never won a national championship in the modern era (1986 was the last one). The next coach must bring a championship mentality.
Required Background:
- National championship experience (as coach or coordinator)
- Track record of competing for major bowl games
- History of creating winning culture
- Ability to handle pressure of big-time program
Why This Matters: Penn State fans are tired of 10-win seasons and moral victories. The program needs someone who believes they can win it all—and has evidence of doing so.
Realistic Coaching Candidates
Several names have been circulated in speculation about Penn State’s next head coach:
Bill O’Brien (Boston College HC)
- Pros: Former Penn State OC; successful at Boston College; understands program
- Cons: Limited Power 4 success; BC job is not prestigious enough precedent
- Likelihood: Possible, but may not be a “wow” hire
Lance Leipold (Kansas HC)
- Pros: Proven rebuilder; offensive mind; decent success at Kansas
- Cons: Kansas is less prestigious than Penn State expects
- Likelihood: Possible if Kraft wants proven builder
Urban Meyer (Former Ohio State HC)
- Pros: National championship pedigree; recruits at elite level; Big Ten experience
- Cons: Completely unprovable; hasn’t coached since 2018; age concerns; media lightning rod
- Likelihood: Almost zero (but fans discuss it obsessively on Twitter)
Deion Sanders (Colorado HC)
- Pros: Charismatic; recruits heavily; media presence
- Cons: Unproven as Power 4 HC; Colorado struggling; no championship experience
- Likelihood: Very low; seems unlikely to leave Colorado
Other Realistic Options:
- Up-and-coming offensive coordinators from championship programs
- Successful coaches from Group of 5 programs who’ve dominated their level
- Current Power 4 coordinators ready for head coach opportunity
What Fans Should Expect
Pat Kraft likely won’t land the “sexiest” name. But he should land a proven winner with Big Ten or major Power 4 experience.
Realistic Scenario: A 45-55 year old coach with 3-4 winning seasons at another Power 4 program, known for offensive innovation and recruiting success.
Timeline: Announcement likely by early December 2025 to aid recruiting.
Returning Talent: The Foundation for 2026 Success
Despite the 2025 catastrophe, Penn State will have significant returning talent in 2026—particularly at skill positions.
Running Back Duo: Allen and Singleton Return
Kaytron Allen (Junior in 2026)
- 2025 Stats: 736 rushing yards, 10 TDs in 9 games
- Historical Context: On pace for 1,000-yard season if Penn State reaches 6-6
- 2026 Projection: Could have his best season in new system
- Key Strengths: Power, vision, pass-catching ability, durability
- NFL Draft Status: If he declares after 2026, likely Day 2-3 selection
Nicholas Singleton (Senior in 2026)
- 2025 Stats: 296 rushing yards, 7 TDs in 8 games
- Historical Context: 1,099 yards in 2024; productive but less featured in 2025
- 2026 Projection: Increased role if new OC emphasizes his abilities
- Key Strengths: Elite speed, receiving skills, explosiveness
- NFL Draft Status: Likely returning for senior season; potential Day 2 pick
The “Thunder and Lightning” Duo in 2026:
Allen and Singleton together form one of the nation’s best backfield combinations. In a new offensive system with a coach who knows how to maximize their talents, this duo could be absolutely dominant.
Realistic 2026 Rushing Stats (Combined):
- Combined: 2,000+ rushing yards, 15-20 TDs
- Allen: 900-1,000 yards, 8-10 TDs
- Singleton: 1,000+ yards, 7-10 TDs
Why This Matters: Elite running games mask QB development. If the new coach can feed Allen and Singleton, Penn State’s offense will be functional while the QB position stabilizes.
Offensive Line: Continuity and Development
Key Returnees:
- Nick Dawkins (6th-year center): One of nation’s best centers
- Junior class OL: Several juniors who will be seniors in 2026
- Experienced starters at multiple positions
2026 Outlook: The offensive line should be one of Penn State’s strongest units, assuming health and development.
What This Means for 2026: A strong, experienced OL can protect an inexperienced QB and open running lanes. This is Penn State’s greatest asset heading into 2026.
Wide Receiver Room: Young Talent Developing
Current Situation: Penn State’s WR room is young but talented:
- Trebor Pena: Emerging as top target (331 rec yards in 2025)
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith: Junior with potential
- Malick Sylla: Talented sophomore
- Other young receivers: Developing talent in rotation
2026 Projection: By 2026, these receivers will be a year older and more developed. They should form a solid receiving corps—not elite, but functional.
Quarterback: The $64,000 Question
This is where uncertainty dominates Penn State’s 2026 outlook.
Ethan Grunkemeyer (Redshirt Sophomore in 2026)
2025 Performance:
- 8 games played, 2 starts
- 346 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs
- 58.9% completion percentage
- 102.5 QBR
Assessment: Grunkemeyer is a talented prospect, but 8 games as a backup doesn’t provide sufficient evidence of starter viability.
2026 Scenarios:
Scenario A: Grunkemeyer Wins the Job
- Pros: Continuity, familiar system, saves scholarship
- Cons: Unproven; may not be elite level talent
- Likelihood: If new coach sees potential and has patience
Scenario B: Transfer Portal QB
- Pros: Proven talent, known commodity, could immediately elevate offense
- Cons: Loses scholarship spot, possible chemistry issues
- Likelihood: Likely option if Kraft/new coach want immediate improvement
Scenario C: High School Recruit QB
- Pros: Long-term prospect, avoids transfer portal complications
- Cons: Won’t start in 2026, extends rebuild timeline
- Likelihood: Possible if program commits to multi-year rebuild
Most Likely Outcome: Penn State will likely pursue a transfer portal QB to give 2026 more stability while developing Grunkemeyer for the future.
Realistic 2026 QB Projection: Transfer portal player or Grunkemeyer gaining experience, with stats in the 2,500-3,000 passing yard range and 15-20 TD:INT ratio.
The Defense: Can It Return to Elite Status?
Penn State’s defense in 2025 was actually quite good by the numbers (47th in points allowed nationally), but it hasn’t been elite for several years.
Defensive Line Concerns
Current Situation: The DL class graduated several key players. Junior and sophomore development will be crucial.
Key Returners:
- Mix of juniors and sophomores with limited starting experience
- Need for continued recruitment and development
2026 Outlook: Likely to be solid but not elite. The DL will need to continue developing.
Linebacker Room: Rebuilding
Current Situation: Several key LBs have graduated. The position group is transitioning.
Key Returnees:
- Junior LBs with starting experience
- Sophomores ready to contribute
2026 Outlook: Younger LB corps means more athleticism but less experience. Should improve by year-end.
Secondary: Potential Strength
Current Situation: The secondary has good depth with young talent:
- Safeties: Developing talent
- Cornerbacks: Several junior/senior contributors
- Overall: Mix of experience and youth
2026 Outlook: The secondary could be a strength if DB development continues. Should be one of Penn State’s better defensive units.
Overall Defensive Projection
2026 Reality: The defense will likely regress slightly from 2025’s decent performance as the DL and LB corps go through youth and development.
Expected 2026 Defense:
- Points allowed: 22-25 per game (approximately 60th nationally)
- Some elite individual performances but not consistently elite unit
- Improvement likely as young players develop
The 2026 Schedule: Opportunities and Challenges
Penn State’s 2026 schedule will be critical in determining win-loss record and momentum.
Non-Conference Schedule
Likely Schedule:
- Non-conference games against Group of 5 opponents
- Possibly one FCS opponent
- Strength varies by year, but usually manageable
2026 Projection: Penn State should go 3-1 or 4-0 in non-conference play under new coach with returning talent.
Big Ten Schedule: The Real Challenge
Big Ten Opponents (likely):
- vs. Ohio State (likely tough matchup)
- vs. Michigan (always competitive)
- vs. Indiana (must-win after 2025 loss)
- vs. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and others
2026 Reality: Big Ten play will be difficult, but Penn State’s talent and new coach should generate improvement.
Conference Projection:
- 2025: 0-6 in Big Ten
- 2026 Goal: 4-5 or 5-4 conference record (7-5 to 8-4 overall)
Realistic 2026 Record Projections
Conservative Estimate: 7-5 overall, 4-5 Big Ten
- Assumes new coach needs adjustment year
- Accounts for defensive youth
- Reflects realistic transition
Moderate Estimate: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
- New coach establishes systems
- Transfers/recruits contribute
- Injury-free year
Optimistic Estimate: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big Ten
- New coach is excellent
- Key transfers excel
- Everything breaks right
Most Likely Outcome: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
This would represent significant improvement from 3-6 and establish momentum for 2027-2028 challenges.
Recruiting and Portal: Building 2026 Talent
The new coach’s first priority will be salvaging the 2026 recruiting class and transfer portal.
The Recruiting Challenge
Current Situation (Post-Collapse):
- Four-star QB Troy Huhn decommitted (cited coaching uncertainty)
- Other top commits reconsidering
- In-state competition from Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana
- Reputation damage from 2025 collapse
2026 Recruiting Goals:
Immediate (December 2025 signing day):
- Retain 70%+ of committed recruits
- Add 3-4 transfer portal players (especially QB, DL, LB)
- Land 5-10 three-star recruits to fill roster needs
By July 2026:
- Build competitive 2027 recruiting class
- Establish new coach’s recruiting footprint
- Win commitment from 3-4 four-star prospects
Transfer Portal Strategy
Priority Positions for Transfer Additions:
- Quarterback - Most critical need
- Defensive Line - Youth requires support
- Linebacker - Transitioning position group
- Wide Receiver - Depth piece
Realistic Transfer Goals:
- 3-4 impact transfers for 2026 season
- Focus on proven contributors from Power 4 programs
- Strategic fits rather than “splash” signings
Budget Considerations:
- NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) will be crucial
- Penn State has resources but must be smart
- Avoid overpaying for marginal improvements
High School Recruiting Targets
Priority Recruiting Territories:
- Pennsylvania - Home state, must dominate
- Ohio - Direct competition with Ohio State
- New Jersey - Traditional Penn State territory
- Florida - Expand to major talent pool
- Texas - Secondary market
Target Positions:
- Quarterback (2027 class)
- Running Back (develop for 2027-2028)
- Offensive Lineman (must have)
- Defensive Lineman (critical need)
- Linebacker (rebuilding group)
- Defensive Back (secondary depth)
The 2026 Season Narrative: What Success Looks Like
Success in 2026 won’t look like a national championship. It will look like stability and improvement.
Year 1 Head Coach Expectations
Realistic Goals:
- Stabilize the program - Stop the bleeding, restore confidence
- Win 8+ games - Demonstrate competence and improvement
- Win Big Ten games - Compete effectively in conference
- Develop young talent - Create foundation for 2027-2028
- Recruit top class - Build future competitiveness
Measuring Success: Beyond Wins and Losses
Key Metrics for 2026:
- Fan engagement: Are fans re-engaged or still cynical?
- Recruiting class ranking: Top 25? Top 20?
- Transfer portal success: Did we land impact players?
- QB development: Is Grunkemeyer progressing? Is transfer working?
- Team culture: Do players seem to believe in the coach and system?
- Close games: Are we winning the competitive contests?
Potential 2026 Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
Best Case Scenario (9-3 Record, 6-3 Big Ten)
What Happens:
- New coach is exceptional and brings immediate impact
- Transfer portal QB is elite talent
- Allen/Singleton have career-defining seasons
- Young defense develops ahead of schedule
- Key recruits commit to new coach’s vision
Specific Victories:
- Beat Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Compete with Ohio State, Michigan
- Dominate non-conference
- Win 6 Big Ten games
Implications:
- Major bowl game (Sugar, Rose, etc.)
- Immediately restore fan confidence
- Establish recruiting momentum
- Position 2027 as potential breakout year
Worst Case Scenario (6-6 Record, 3-6 Big Ten)
What Happens:
- New coach struggles with transition
- Transfer portal QB doesn’t fit system
- Young defense regresses
- Injuries to key players (Allen, Singleton)
- Program struggles to establish identity
Specific Losses:
- Lose to Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Get blown out by Ohio State, Michigan
- Lose winnable non-conference game
- Competitive Big Ten losses
Implications:
- Bowl game still likely but lower-tier bowl
- Fans still frustrated with progress
- Pressure on new coach heading into 2027
- Recruiting momentum stalls
Most Likely Scenario (8-4 Record, 5-4 Big Ten)
What Happens:
- New coach has solid first year
- Transition is somewhat bumpy but manageable
- Allen/Singleton remain productive
- Defense shows improvement by season’s end
- Team finishes strong with key wins
Specific Victories:
- Beat Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska (or equivalent)
- Competitive games with Michigan, Ohio State (possibly one win)
- Dominate non-conference
Implications:
- Respectable bowl game (Texas, Music City, etc.)
- Fans cautiously optimistic about future
- Recruiting gains traction
- Program regains some credibility
Fan Expectations: Resetting the Bar
After 2025’s disaster, Penn State fans must reset their expectations for 2026.
Unrealistic 2026 Expectations (That Fans Might Have)
❌ National Championship: Impossible. Too many variables.
❌ 11+ Wins: Unrealistic for year-one coach in transition.
❌ Beat Ohio State and Michigan: Unlikely (though not impossible).
❌ Top-5 Recruiting Class: Difficult after 2025 reputation damage.
❌ Elite Defense on Year 1: Defense needs development time.
Realistic 2026 Expectations (What Fans Should Want)
✅ 8+ Wins: Shows improvement and stability.
✅ Competitive Big Ten Record: 5-4 or better is respectable.
✅ Competitive in Close Games: Win the games we should win.
✅ QB Progress: Functional offense, whether Grunkemeyer or transfer.
✅ Top-30 Recruiting Class: Establish new coach’s credibility.
✅ Bowl Game Appearance: Any bowl is a win after 2025.
✅ Team Culture Improvement: Players seem to believe in coach and system.
Comparing to Similar Rebuilding Situations
How does Penn State’s 2026 situation compare to other programs that have undergone similar rebuilds?
Texas A&M Post-Jimbo Fisher
Situation:
- Fired Jimbo Fisher after $76M buyout
- Hired Mike Elko (2023)
- First year was 5-7, embarrassing loss to TCU
- Year two (2024): 8-5, respectable bowl game
Lesson for Penn State: Rebuilds take time. Even with elite talent, Year 1 under new coach is often messy. Year 2 shows real improvement.
Florida Post-Jim McElwain
Situation:
- Fired McElwain after 4 years
- Hired Jim Mullen (2018)
- First year: 5-7 (disaster)
- Next few years: Gradual improvement to 6-7, 8-4
Lesson for Penn State: Coaching culture changes take time. New systems take adjustment. Be patient but demand progress.
Colorado Under Deion Sanders
Situation:
- Hired “Coach Prime” (2023) with tremendous fanfare
- Year 1: 4-8 (huge disappointment despite high expectations)
- Year 2 (2024): 9-4 (dramatic improvement with transfers)
Lesson for Penn State: Transfer portal success is possible and can drive rapid improvement. But Year 1 is often a rebuilding year.
The 2026 Schedule as Narrative Device
Individual games in 2026 will tell the story of Penn State’s rebuild:
Marquee Matchups That Define Success
vs. Indiana (Road Game)
- Narrative: Can we beat last year’s team that beat us?
- Expectation: Must Win for respect and momentum
vs. Ohio State (Home or Away)
- Narrative: Proof we can compete with elite
- Expectation: Competitive showing is success (don’t need to win)
vs. Michigan
- Narrative: Big Ten East credibility
- Expectation: Competitive game is good outcome
vs. Iowa / Wisconsin
- Narrative: Can we beat similar-level Big Ten teams?
- Expectation: Should Win these games
Building for 2027 and Beyond: 2026 as Foundation
While 2026 is important for immediate success, it’s equally important as a foundation for 2027-2028 when Penn State can truly compete for championships.
The Multi-Year Build Framework
2026: Year 1 (Stabilization)
- Establish new coach’s system and culture
- Develop young players (QB, defense)
- Rebuild credibility in recruiting
- Go 8-4 with respectable bowl
2027: Year 2 (Establishment)
- New coach’s system fully implemented
- QB fully developed (whether transfer or Grunkemeyer)
- Young defense matured
- Recruiting class established
- Goal: 9-3, competitive Big Ten record, major bowl
2028: Year 3 (Championship Potential)
- Allen likely declares for NFL (5-6 his best years in program)
- Core players matured (3rd year in system)
- Defense approaching elite status
- Recruiting class benefits from success
- Goal: 10-2+, Big Ten competition, CFP potential
Positioning for Long-Term Success
Penn State’s advantage heading into 2026:
- Elite Running Back Duo: Allen and Singleton give program two more elite years
- Experienced OL: Nick Dawkins and juniors become seniors
- Facilities: Among nation’s best
- Fan Support: Will re-engage if program shows progress
- Recruiting Base: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio talent pools intact
Penn State’s challenges:
- QB Development: Must find answer, whether Grunkemeyer or transfer
- Defense: Must develop young talent
- Big Ten Competition: Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana all strong
- Recruiting: Damage control necessary
The Realistic Outlook: Why 2026 Can Work
Despite the 2025 catastrophe, Penn State has legitimate reasons for optimism heading into 2026:
Reasons for Hope
- Returning Talent: Allen/Singleton duo is elite
- New Coaching Regime: Fresh start, new ideas, renewed energy
- Experienced OL: Foundation for success
- Youth and Development: Young players only get better
- Recruiting Momentum: New coach can establish credibility
- Fan Re-engagement: Fans will give new coach chance
Reasons for Caution
- QB Question: Unresolved position is critical
- Defensive Youth: Will take time to develop
- Big Ten Competition: Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana are strong
- Recruiting Damage: In-state and national reputation hurt
- Coaching Transition: New coach needs adjustment time
The Bottom Line: 2026 Expectations
Penn State football in 2026 will not be a national championship team. But it can and should be:
- 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
- Competitive in close games
- Respectable bowl game appearance
- Foundation for 2027-2028 championship runs
If Penn State achieves these goals in 2026, the program will have successfully turned the page on 2025’s disaster and positioned itself for future success.
If Penn State falls short of 8 wins, serious questions will need to be answered about the coaching hire and direction.
Conclusion: Hope on the Horizon
The 2025 Penn State football season will forever be marked as one of the worst in program history. It was a year of broken dreams, injury devastation, and coaching change.
But 2026 offers something 2025 did not: hope and opportunity.
With returning talent, a new coaching regime, and a chance to reset, Penn State can rebuild. Not overnight. Not without challenges. But realistically.
The next coach’s job is not to win a national championship in Year 1. It’s to stabilize the program, develop talent, and position Penn State for sustained success.
If the right coach is hired, if transfers contribute, if young players develop, and if Allen and Singleton have great seasons, Penn State can go 8-4 in 2026.
That might sound modest. But after 3-6, it’s a championship in itself.
We Are… Penn State. And 2026 is the year we rebuild.
Article current as of November 10, 2025. Projections based on returning talent assessment, typical coaching transition timelines, and Big Ten competitive landscape. Actual results will vary based on coaching hire, recruiting success, and health factors.